[레이달리오] 변화하는 세계질서 (Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order)

요약하면, 제국의 등장과 세계질서의 변화는 반복되고 있습니다. 레이달리오는 최근 두드러지는 미중 패권경쟁, 부의 양극화, 정치 포퓰리즘 부각 등 미국이 정신차리지 않으면 중국에게 패권이 넘어가는 건 순식간이라고 말하고 있습니다.

 

레이달리오의 신작은 변화하는 세계질서는 꼭 원문으로 유튜브에서 1.5배 속이라도 보시길 추천드립니다.(약 40분)

(Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order 내용 요약)

 

 

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How I Learned to Anticipate the Future by Studying the Past

 

 

▲The value of paper money will fall. This printing of money is also what happened in ▲2008 to relieve the mortgage-driven debt crisis, and in ▲2020 to relieve the pandemic-driven economic crisis.

▲how the roaring twenties bubble turned into the 1930s depression, which gave me the lessons that allowed me to anticipate and profit from the 2007 bubble turning into the 2008 bust.

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Changing Orders

▲First, countries didn't have enough money to pay their debts, even after lowering interest rates to zero. ▲Second, big internal conflicts emerged due to growing gaps in wealth and values. ▲Third, increasing external conflict between a rising great power and the leading great power (What exactly is an order? You might ask. It's a governing system for people dealing with each other.)

 

Internal orders change at different times than world orders, though whether within or between countries, these orders typically change after wars. ▲Civil wars within countries, ▲international wars between countries.

 

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The Big Cycle

Dutch(1620~)→British(1750~)→United States(1900~)→China(2020~)

As you can see, they transpired in overlapping cycles that lasted about ▲250 years with ▲10 to 20 year transition periods between them. Typically, these two transitions have been periods of great conflict because leading powers don't decline without a fight.

 

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The Rise

 

▲First, they win power by gaining more support than the opposition. ▲Second, they consolidate power by converting, weakening, or eliminating the opposition so they don't stand in their way. ▲Third, they establish systems and institutions that make the country work well. ▲Fourth, they pick their successors well, or create systems that do that, because a great empire requires many great leaders over several generations.

They must also develop systems to incentivize and empower those that have the ability to make or take wealth. In all of these cases, the most successful empires used a ▲capitalist approach to develop productive entrepreneurs.

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The Top

Wealth gaps are self-reinforcing because rich people use their greater resources to reinforce their powers. For example, they give greater privileges to their children,like ▲better education, and they influence the ▲political system to their advantage.This causes the gaps in values, politics, and opportunities to grow between ▲the rich "haves" and the poor "have-nots". Those who are less well-off feel the system is unfair,so resentments grow.

When borrowing and spending are strong, the empire appears very strong, but its finances are in fact being weakened. The borrowing sustains the country's power. Inevitably, ▲the cost of maintaining and defending the empire becomes greater than the revenue it brings in.

 

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The Decline

When the government has ▲problems funding itself, when there are bad economic conditions and ▲living standards for most people are declining, and there are large wealth, values, and political gaps, internal conflict between the rich and the poor, as well as different ethnic, religious, and racial groups greatly increases.

This internal conflict makes the▲empire weak and vulnerable to rising external rivals who, seeing this domestic weakness, are more inclined to mount a challenge.

 

 

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The Future

As for what we need to do, it comes down to just two things - ▲earn more than we spend, and ▲treat each other well.